The Light Ahead

Through the past several months, we’ve heard all sorts of voices discussing the current state of economic affairs – including mine in last month’s “Aqua Culture” column, but, more predominantly, those of representatives of the 24-hour-a-day news media.

Anyone who isn’t living in a cave is by now aware that we’re caught up in an economic crisis of global proportions and that the consequences may be dire. We’ve heard that line so often and with such fervor, in fact, that it’s numbed me to its influence. That’s not to diminish the seriousness of what’s happening, but rather to question the media’s relentless pounding of the storyline.

We know the score, so enough already!

Frankly, I believe that ongoing coverage of the economic crisis in the mainstream media has actually become part of the problem by loading us up on fear instead of building optimism and a positive sense of the road ahead. As I see it, the key to sparking a recovery involves fostering a wide willingness to invest in the future and be bold in our decisions – as consumers, as investors and as businesspeople.

To put it another way, the best thing we can do sometimes (and I believe this is one of those times) is the exact opposite of what conventional wisdom or popular opinion tells us to do. Take the stock market as an example: Is there any doubt that there are great deals to be had right now? I, for one, am looking to buy stocks instead of sell them, for the simple reason that when things turn around (as they inevitably will), there are going to be all sorts of forward-thinking people who will make bundles of money, and I want to be among them.

A TIME TO DANCE

Enough generalities: My main purpose in revisiting this topic has little to do with exploring macroeconomic trends or where we’re headed as a nation. In fact, what I want to do here is focus on my experiences this past November at the International Pool |Spa | Patio Expo in Las Vegas.

Before the show, there was all manner of speculation that it was going to be a serious bummer: Some of our industry’s major manufacturers had decided not to exhibit; tales of businesses going under were exchanged daily; and there were, I’d say, many valid reasons to fear that the show floor might turn out to be something of a ghost town.

As it turned out, attendance was noticeably off and there were some distinct gaps among participating exhibitors, but that’s really where the bad news basically stopped. In fact, what I observed was an optimism and energy of the sort I haven’t seen reported in the media in ages, and I just wish CNN could’ve been there to observe and report on the positives that were evident right from the start.

I knew going in that our Genesis 3 design schools were going to be well attended. In fact, registration for our programs reached the levels of previous years, and it wasn’t just our “regulars”: There were lots of new faces in the crowd as well. Most telling of all, our annual Winemaker Dinner was sold out. That’s a relatively expensive event – a luxury even in great times – but nonetheless we attracted a full (and boisterous) crowd of people who showed up intending to have a really good time.

And that seems to have worked out well. There, in the midst of all this bad economic news, I found myself dancing the night away and having a perfectly wonderful time. At several points along the line, I had to ask myself, “What’s wrong with this picture? Aren’t we supposed to be depressed and forlorn right now?”

It certainly wasn’t the case at our Genesis 3 event, and I heard confirming reports from across town that the show’s main welcome party was a smashing success as well. All in all, it seemed that there were plenty of people wandering around the show who didn’t read the memo instructing them to be downcast, demoralized and depressed.

Of course, the fact that some people were willing to kick up their heels at a couple of fun events does not tell the whole story, so let me back up a bit.

MORE THAN PARTIES

On the first morning of the show, I attended the keynote speech by NBA legend and sports commentator Bill Walton. I’m not a huge basketball fan and never followed Walton’s career: I went to the meeting hall not knowing quite what to expect and was pleasantly surprised by how dynamic and upbeat his presentation turned out to be.

In fact, it was the perfect message at just the right time: He spoke eloquently about making the most of your talent and opportunities, shared inspiring stories about his time with the great UCLA coach John Wooden and did what I thought was an impressive job of tying his message directly to the pool and spa industry. I left feeling good and hoped passionately that others in the room that morning had absorbed the essence of what Walton had said.

Once his speech ended, I walked with the crowd down to the pre-function area where people were gathering to wait for the exhibit hall to open. This is when I knew something special was in the air: Instead of a sparse gathering of apprehensive people, I was moving along with a throng of obviously enthusiastic people who seemingly couldn’t wait to get out on the show floor.

That was when I really wished that CNN (or NBC, CBS, ABC or Fox) had been there to file a report. Here we were, in the midst of a down economy in an industry that provides what some people see as discretionary or luxury products, but the businesspeople were showing up in enthusiastic numbers and, instead of crouching in fear, were eager to educate themselves, meet with their peers and see new products. The crowd outside the hall was thick enough that I had trouble making my way through them so I could get to our Genesis 3 booth.

Then the show opened. As I mentioned above, attendance was a bit off from recent years, but our booth was certainly busy and I heard similar reports from other exhibitors. We were, in fact, going full tilt from start to finish, our area constantly filled with watershapers who wanted to talk about upcoming projects, seek information and make professional connections. In many cases, what I heard was that business was still as strong as it had ever been.

As I’ve pointed out in the past, the custom market has endured remarkably well during the past year of uncertainty and, to be frank, that is the audience Genesis 3 aims to serve. Still, the level of enthusiasm matched what I’ve seen in past years and, through it all, I couldn’t help thinking that there’s something going among watershapers that simply doesn’t line up with what we’ve been told to think about the current economic climate.

INTO THE LIGHT

All of this makes me think that there’s a light at the end of the tunnel – and that it’s not a train coming in the opposite direction. Maybe, just maybe, all of this stuff about optimism, education and ambition might just really be the antidote for these tough times.

Naturally, this belief must be balanced by a sober assessment of the current marketplace. Yes, there are businesses that are going to disappear and, yes, manufacturers are suffering as revenues drop and, no, I’m not proclaiming the onset of an upturn. Fact is, nobody knows just how long this down cycle will last, but we do know it won’t last forever. And based on what I saw at the show (as well as before and after), there are plenty of people who will be more than ready to ride a new wave of prosperity when it finally rolls our way.

In the meantime, I believe we should all do our best to elevate our performance and enjoy our lives. Perhaps that means seeking new educational opportunities or even taking advantage of a slowdown in business to spend more time with family and friends. Maybe it’s time to refocus your business and consider new strategies. As I see it, there’s no sense at all in fretting over conditions beyond our control: Instead, what I want to do is assume that my company will prevail in these times and emerge stronger and more confident than ever when things turn around.

I also see positive things coming out of the political changes we’ve seen. As you read this, Barack Obama has just been sworn in as the 44th President of the United States, and even though I’m an economic conservative and do not share many of the beliefs of some of my more liberal fellow citizens, I can’t help being proud that our nation has elected its first African-American president. I may have preferred the other guy in policy terms, but it was important for our country to plot a new course and I wish Obama and his administration the best of luck.

Divisive partisanship does not accomplish anything other than perpetual divisiveness. Spirited debate touched by optimism is a far more fruitful approach – and is, to borrow an omnipresent campaign slogan, the sort of change we need.

Indeed, I appreciate Obama’s hopefulness, and my wish for all of us is that he succeeds brilliantly and manages to elevate our society’s collective mood. I want him to preside over a strong recovery, and I’d be willing to wager that if he and other leaders saw the attitude displayed by watershapers in Las Vegas last November, they might all point to it as an example of our indomitable American spirit.

There is light ahead. It’ll be great when it shines more brightly, but in the meantime, I don’t see any need to stop dancing.

Brian Van Bower runs Aquatic Consultants, a design firm based in Miami, Fla., and is a co-founder of the Genesis 3 Design Group; dedicated to top-of-the-line performance in aquatic design and construction, this organization conducts schools for like-minded pool designers and builders. He can be reached at [email protected].