Time to Rebound

Eric Herman

Economists, commentators, politicians and just about anyone who’s been paying attention have described the recession that started in 2008 as the worst economic calamity to befall us since the Great Depression. None of us needs their expert testimony to know that the past 18 months have been the toughest most of us have seen in our lifetimes.

Just as we knew when times were great that the housing market was ripe for a bruising and that credit simply had to tighten, so, too, do we know that, when it comes to economics, no down cycle lasts forever and that the mighty engines of our economy will eventually rebound.

The way I currently read the tea leaves, we seem to be heading for that upswing – and with some gusto.

Just recently, for example, the National Association of Realtors reported that, as the third quarter was drawing to a close, pending home sales were increasing at a healthy three-percent clip and had in fact been rising for six straight months. Then the Institute for Supply Management reported significant increases in hard-goods manufacturing, and since then there’s been a parade of reports indicating that we may have hit the bottom and already started climbing again.

I’m starting to hear positive news from watershapers as well. Lots of you have said that, although sales are still flat and have been for some time, you’re seeing increases in inquiries, proposals and bids. And as I’ve mentioned before, the high-end/custom part of the business has remained strong. In fact, through both 2008 and 2009, a number of you have told me that you’ve had your best years ever – despite the cascade of bad news that’s been pouring over us. Landscape architects in particular have apparently been holding their own.

Those who’ve suffered the most have been those who use the volume model along with builders who serve a mid-level clientele. Unfortunately, this is still where much of the industry’s raw volume is, so manufacturers have been caught up short to an amazing degree if any of the reports I’ve been hearing are anywhere close to the truth.

It’s not generally my habit to discuss advertising or sales, but I’m going to break with tradition to offer a quick observation. If you’re a supplier to the watershaping trades, it’s time to snap out of it (if you haven’t already) and get active again. Sure, money’s tight, core markets are suffering and marketing budgets have been slashed, but opportunities are starting to resurface and there are all-new markets emerging for those who are thinking green and recognize the fact that the thousands of landscape architects who read WaterShapes represent the greatest growth potential among all water-oriented professionals.

To be sure, it’s a more progressive industry model than has been pursued in the past, but for the foreseeable future, this is where the business will be. Watershapers who have embraced this evolutionary process are still here, still working and perfectly positioned to enjoy the rewards of economic recovery. Suppliers who tailor their messages, products and marketing efforts to the needs of this sector stand to reap the benefits as well.

If there’s one lesson we all should have learned in the past couple years, it’s that relying on old ideas results in tremendous vulnerability. Those watershapers and suppliers who are shackled to the past will likely suffer through what looks it’s going to be a slow recovery, while those who are looking ahead will be ready to harvest a new crop of opportunities.