Fulfilling Prophesies

If you’re paying even the slightest bit of attention to the world at large, you’ve probably heard more than you ever wanted to know about current economic conditions.

Indeed, everything that has happened in the past year or so with both our national and the global economy has made it hard for some people to think optimistically about the future. These are perilous times, as some say, and in one way or another, I know we’re all being affected by what’s going on.

But that doesn’t seem to be the whole story. In fact, lots of my recent conversations with watershapers have reinforced my view that there are positive ways to respond to the current business environment. I’m even emboldened to say that, for some watershapers, the news hasn’t all been bad.

True, there are some who are worried and are flirting with depression. Some have seen their businesses slow to a stand-still; borrowing the money needed to keep moving forward has gotten very hard to find; and in absorbing the steady drumbeat of negativity about the economy, it’s tough for these folks to see the future as being anything other than bleak.

In sharp contrast, I’ve spoken with far more watershapers who continue to report that they’re doing very well: Business is still advancing because people who have money still have it – maybe a bit less than before, but they see this downturn as temporary rather than permanent and are still in the market for beautiful, artistic watershapes and exterior environments. These watershapers (and I count myself among them) are upbeat about their prospects and, I dare say, are still having fun.

SOUND FOOTINGS

I make no bones about the fact that I thrive on positive energy and that talking with those who are somehow in a good mood always makes me feel better. I’m not belittling those who have been caught up short by recent trends, but as anyone who reads my columns knows, I strongly believe that mood and attitude govern our ability to cope as individuals, businesses and project teams – and even as a nation.

Look at this way: When the stock market tanked late in 2008 – and did so in a big way – the corporations whose stock prices declined were not, in fact, worth less than they had been just a few days prior. What actually changed was a perception of value, and that’s what led to the fall in stock prices. There was bad news, people decided to sell and the stock market took the blows. And that’s less of an oversimplification than it might seem.

What interests me in this context is that for everyone who sold stocks at lessened values, there had to be someone willing to buy at those depressed levels. In other words, the market filled with bargains, and there were plenty of people willing to take advantage of the situation because they had attitudes and insights that enabled them to see through the situation and plan for the future. One among them was Warren Buffett, who bought huge blocks of stock knowing that it might be quite a while before he will realize any gains.

All of which brings up the fundamental point I want to make in this discussion: Regardless of market conditions, we always have a choice in how we approach and plan for the future. Among watershapers these days, I see a clear division between those who are still prospering and those who’ve seen their businesses dry up, and I believe the disparity is largely due to attitudes that drive actions.

Consider this case: I recently spoke with a master tile installer with whom I’ve worked on a number of projects. He told me the story of a local pool builder who mostly does mid-range pools and depends on volume to keep things going – not only a tough market these days but also a difficult business model. It’s a good firm with a good reputation, but it has certainly seen its business drop off in the past year.

The builder had been asked by one of his clients to install and all-tile finish in a pool. The builder had never done such a project before, but rather than rejoice in the opportunity to work with a luxury finish, he’d actually tried to talk the client out of it, expressing the vague concern that the tile would be “too slippery.” Having no experience with tile pools, neither the client nor the builder knew that poor footing is not a common complaint about tile finishes. In all my years of specifying all-tile finishes, in fact, it’s a complaint or concern I’ve never, ever heard.

The client persisted, so, to head him off, the builder actually hired an attorney to draft a disclaimer warning of the possible danger. Instead of reflecting and amplifying the client’s excitement about purchasing something valuable and beautiful, the builder injected fear into the process. And this isn’t an issue of leaving cash on the table: It’s one of depriving a client not only of the desired finish but also of the pride of ownership that would have come with it.

ONE WAY OR ANOTHER

As I see it, the builder’s attitude served as a key factor limiting his ability to step up and operate on a level that would increase his chances of prospering in today’s marketplace. Not to overgeneralize, but I also see this as a case in which an approach based on value, confidence and optimism was defeated by fear and insecurity – and that this is exactly the sort of internal conflict that is driving the current evolution of the watershaping business.

In essence, I believe that what we’ve seen through good times and not-so-good times in the past decade is the emergence of an entirely separate watershaping industry that stands outside the traditional boundaries of the pool and spa industry and the other industries that have conventionally played parts in the way water is used in design and construction projects.

On one branch of that evolutionary split, we have those people who have not embraced the messages, attitudes and knowledge base that have defined both WaterShapes and the Genesis 3 design schools for more than ten years. In fact, it never ceases to amaze me that, a full decade into the existence of the magazine and the educational resource, there are still those in the mainstream pool/spa industry who have never heard of either one. We welcome those people to the party – better late than never – but it’s interesting that even in the relatively compact universe of watershaping, there are people who remain on the outside looking in, often by choice.

Lots of those outliers are caught up in the “old industry” mentality and are suffering greatly through these volatile times. But they are joined by lots of people and companies who know all about this magazine and Genesis 3 and might talk like new-generation watershapers, but don’t truly share their attitudes.

(It’s important to note that this isn’t strictly a high-end-custom vs. low-end-volume distinction: Rather, the difference I’m highlighting has to do with a mindset that prevents people from adopting more progressive and expansive views of their own businesses. The relative affluence of the clientele is really just a product of a positive mentality and the actions that result.)

On the other side of the evolutionary tree are those who have embraced a more powerful approach to watershaping and have joined and helped define a whole, new, separate industry. I don’t believe it is coincidental that these happen to be designers and builders who are doing the best jobs of thriving today: Their “new attitude” has driven them to expand their knowledge bases, offer broader ranges of aesthetic and technical options and, perhaps most important, unshackle themselves from reluctance to try new things and face the future with joy and energy.

I’m gratified by how many of these people have participated in Genesis 3 programs and seem to have internalized every aspect of the positive outlook carried in each issue of WaterShapes. Certainly, neither are prerequisites for bolder, more optimistic thinking and actions, but the correlation is so strong that it’s impossible to ignore.

For all the nuances and complexities involved in advancing any business, there remains this fundamental distinction: To do something different, you first have to think about doing it. Returning to the builder mentioned above, making a client fear the possibility of slipping on an all-tile finish points clearly in one direction, while getting himself excited about the fact that he’d be installing his first-ever all-tile pool would have driven him in the other. The action begins with a thought, and a thought is always a matter of choice.

COMES THE GOOD

I believe and have often argued that, good times or bad, embracing this positive form of thinking and adopting this lively approach results in fewer yet better jobs, more beautiful work, greater profits and an improved overall lifestyle. At this level, work is simply more fun and enjoyable.

And now, it seems, to this list of benefits we can add one more: Operating in this way means you’ll apparently be far less vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of the general economy.

To be sure, the current economic downturn may eventually “trickle up” to the point where it limits the custom end of the watershaping business, but it’s clear to me just the same that our new industry is going to feel the pinch later and to a lesser degree than the traditional ones, and I’d be more than happy to bet it will bounce back sooner, and with a roar. The lows, in other words, won’t be as low, and the highs will be higher.

I have sympathy for those who might be coming to this realization late in the game. After all, you can’t just throw a switch one day and decide that all of a sudden you’re in a different category. Stepping up to new levels takes planning, an investment in education and an ongoing willingness to work hard at improving your acumen and skills. It’s all about positive action over time.

By the same token (although I’ve never heard that the late bird gets the worm), I don’t think there’s ever a bad time to make a good, positive change in direction. And for those who remain steadfast in their adherence to the old, traditional value system that characterizes parts of the pool/spa industry and simply refuse to change, I find it difficult to be very sympathetic.

It seems cruel to say it, but there’s no doubt in my mind that current economic trends will thin the ranks and drive marginal and/or sub-standard players from the marketplace – just as occurred in the late 1980s and early ’90s. We know as well that economic performance is cyclical and that the mighty engines of the U.S. economy will rev back up. When that happens, we will very likely see some level of pent-up demand unleashed in the market. I can’t feel bad knowing that, when recovery comes, many of the people who have in my view held watershaping back will no longer be part of the scene.

Another positive: In the boom years prior to the downturn of 2008, the industry was so flush with business that it was easy to take success for granted – and watershapers weren’t alone in doing so. In fact, all that many consumers had to do to be “successful” was buy a house, live in it a couple of years without making any improvements, and sit back and watch its value appreciate. I believe many people began to think they were entitled to financial success just by virtue of the fact they lived someplace.

The result is that many people in business lost sight of what it really means to be successful. There was less thought given to creating objects of value and more time spent in becoming collectively lazy in thought and action. So what we’re witnessing now is a mass-scale recalibration of expectations – something I see as a healthy process that will force watershapers to appreciate the nature of success on a more grounded, focused level that will benefit both clients and watershaping alike.

CLEARLY NOW

It is true that tough times do not leave us with easy answers and that, sometimes, things will happen that are beyond our control. The cold fact is, we may well be facing tighter markets, reluctant buyers and reduced opportunities for an indefinite period of time.

In a place where nobody really seems to know how long our current economic woes will continue or how bad things might get, I choose optimism tempered by realism and will never allow myself to lose the clarity with which I’ve seen things for the past ten years. In short, I will never see an all-tile pool as being hazardous or as something other than a foundation on which I can build future prosperity.

As I see it, both sides of the evolutionary tree are running into self-fulfilling prophesies. For myself, I chose to ignore those who are letting bad times drive them under and choose instead to associate with those who will keep me moving forward, in good times and bad.

Brian Van Bower runs Aquatic Consultants, a design firm based in Miami, Fla., and is a co-founder of the Genesis 3 Design Group; dedicated to top-of-the-line performance in aquatic design and construction, this organization conducts schools for like-minded pool designers and builders. He can be reached at [email protected].